5 Property Market Indicators to Watch in 2024

1. Price growth expected to continue

Taylor Swift may have been Time’s Person of the Year, but Inflation was most certainly 2023’s Topic of the Year. As every householder knows, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) undertook a steady, and somewhat painful, program of interest rate rises to bring it under control. This has largely succeeded but a combination of low housing supply and strong demand meant that property prices didn’t take the tumble many expected. In fact, at the end of last year, median house prices were at or close to peak in every capital city, except Hobart and Darwin. Off the back of continuing strong demand, prices are expected to grow throughout 2024, setting new records in Sydney, Perth, and Brisbane.

2. Interest rates predicted to fall

While forecasters are pricing in the probability of one more rate rise early in 2024, the consensus seems to be that interest rates have peaked and will stabilise for a period before a possible rate cut toward the end of the year. This is largely expected to be a new spark of ignition in the property market, setting off an upswing in borrowing and buying, as well as knock-on price growth.

3. The flight to affordability

With rising prices in major cities, buyers are increasingly seeking affordable options. This trend is leading to a surge in demand for properties in outer suburban and regional areas, especially where there are good amenities and quality environments that compete with the attraction of living in the city. We have particularly seen this with demand for our Brookhaven community in Queensland, Mambourin and Five Farms in Victoria, Baldivis Grove in Western Australia, and Ed.Square in New South Wales. One of the things we saw through the pandemic is that long commutes are no longer a necessary requirement of outer urban or regional living, and we expect to see continued interest in these areas throughout 2024 and beyond.

4. A rental market at boiling point

Last year, a critical lack of housing supply collided with an array of demand factors that has made renting in Australia a source of stress for many. This is not an easy problem to unwind and may take years to bring back to balance. In the meantime, we expect to see first home buyers accelerate their move into home ownership this year, especially as interest rates come down and first home buyer stimulus like the Federal Government’s ‘Help to Buy’ Scheme comes back into effect.

5. Housing supply a hot button issue

The issue of housing supply has become a central topic of discussion for property developers and policy makers. At every level, business and government is working to unlock pathways to build more housing stock but it will take time and great effort to meaningfully put a dent in the problem. In 2024, short supply and its effect on housing price growth, rental demand, and investor activity will be a topic of discussion around most dinner tables too. Anecdotally, we’re seeing a lot more input from the ‘Bank of Mum and Dad’ in helping young people beat price rises, but from my perspective we must solve the supply issue first.

Stay informed. Be adaptable.

The Australian property market is set to be dynamic and full of opportunities this year. Whether you're looking to buy, sell, or invest, staying informed and adaptable will be key to navigating the landscape.

Cameron Leggatt
CEO
Frasers Property Australia